Fresno State vs Utah State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 10 pregame analysis for Fresno State at Utah State. 2026-11-08 02:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #40. Line unavailable.

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Fresno State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game14.0%19.0%3.8%

Utah State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game4.9%11.9%0.2%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. USC: 0.9% outcome swing; Fresno State wins
  2. BYU: 0.6% outcome swing; Utah State wins
  3. Arizona: 0.4% outcome swing; Utah State wins
  4. Utah: 0.4% outcome swing; Utah State wins
  5. Indiana: 0.3% outcome swing; Fresno State wins

Impacts if Fresno State wins

  1. USC: 0.5% change; Fresno State wins
  2. Arizona: -0.2% change; Utah State wins
  3. BYU: -0.2% change; Utah State wins
  4. Ohio State: 0.2% change; Fresno State wins
  5. Utah: -0.2% change; Utah State wins

Impacts if Utah State wins

  1. BYU: 0.4% change; Utah State wins
  2. USC: -0.4% change; Fresno State wins
  3. Alabama: 0.3% change; Utah State wins
  4. Indiana: -0.3% change; Fresno State wins
  5. Arizona: 0.2% change; Utah State wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentFresno State winsUtah State winsSwingBetter outcome
USCBig Ten9.1%9.6%8.7%0.9%Fresno State wins
BYUBig 1251.4%51.2%51.8%0.6%Utah State wins
ArizonaBig 1212.4%12.2%12.6%0.4%Utah State wins
UtahBig 1283.4%83.2%83.6%0.4%Utah State wins
IndianaBig Ten88.9%88.9%88.6%0.3%Fresno State wins
Ohio StateBig Ten69.8%70.0%69.7%0.3%Fresno State wins
Texas TechBig 1244.8%44.7%45.0%0.3%Utah State wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic20.1%20.0%20.3%0.3%Utah State wins
Wake ForestACC45.3%45.5%45.2%0.3%Fresno State wins
AlabamaSEC76.5%76.6%76.8%0.2%Utah State wins
Boise StatePac-1256.8%56.8%56.6%0.2%Fresno State wins
New MexicoMountain West18.1%18.1%17.9%0.2%Fresno State wins
UCLABig Ten45.5%45.5%45.3%0.2%Fresno State wins
HoustonBig 1237.1%37.0%37.1%0.1%Utah State wins
IowaBig Ten12.7%12.7%12.8%0.1%Utah State wins
LibertyConference USA3.8%3.9%3.8%0.1%Fresno State wins
LSUSEC49.1%49.1%49.2%0.1%Utah State wins
MiamiACC98.7%98.7%98.6%0.1%Fresno State wins
MissouriSEC7.0%6.9%7.0%0.1%Utah State wins
Notre DameFBS Independents87.7%87.7%87.6%0.1%Fresno State wins