Oregon State vs Boise State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Oregon State at Boise State. 2026-11-14 23:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #2. Boise State -4.5.
Oregon State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 19.6% | 80.4% | 1.5% |
Boise State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 66.4% | 81.2% | 14.7% |
| Automatic bid | 66.2% | 81.0% | 14.7% |
| Conference title game | 99.6% | 100.0% | 98.6% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 48.6% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
- Liberty: 8.2% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
- North Texas: 6.0% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
- Oregon: 4.1% outcome swing; Boise State wins
- UTSA: 1.6% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
Impacts if Oregon State wins
- New Mexico: 37.8% change; Oregon State wins
- Liberty: 6.3% change; Oregon State wins
- North Texas: 4.6% change; Oregon State wins
- Oregon: -3.0% change; Boise State wins
- UTSA: 1.3% change; Oregon State wins
Impacts if Boise State wins
- New Mexico: -10.8% change; Oregon State wins
- Liberty: -1.9% change; Oregon State wins
- North Texas: -1.4% change; Oregon State wins
- Oregon: 1.1% change; Boise State wins
- UTSA: -0.3% change; Oregon State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Oregon State wins | Boise State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 14.7% | 81.2% | 66.5% | Boise State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 65.7% | 17.1% | 48.6% | Oregon State wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 9.5% | 1.3% | 8.2% | Oregon State wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 7.0% | 1.0% | 6.0% | Oregon State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 25.3% | 29.4% | 4.1% | Boise State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 0.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 1.6% | Oregon State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 46.3% | 45.2% | 1.1% | Oregon State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 35.5% | 34.8% | 0.7% | Oregon State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.7% | 17.1% | 0.6% | Oregon State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 0.6% | Oregon State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 54.5% | 53.9% | 0.6% | Oregon State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.9% | 73.5% | 0.4% | Oregon State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.4% | 94.0% | 0.4% | Oregon State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.5% | 45.9% | 0.4% | Boise State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.4% | 42.1% | 0.3% | Oregon State wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | Oregon State wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | Oregon State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.4% | 21.1% | 0.3% | Oregon State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.1% | 81.9% | 0.2% | Oregon State wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | Oregon State wins |