Utah State vs San Diego State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Utah State at San Diego State. 2026-11-15 02:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #38. Line unavailable.
Utah State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 14.3% | 21.8% | 0.3% |
San Diego State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 7.2% | 17.4% | 0.6% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Boise State: 0.8% outcome swing; Utah State wins
- New Mexico: 0.6% outcome swing; San Diego State wins
- UCLA: 0.6% outcome swing; San Diego State wins
- Utah: 0.6% outcome swing; Utah State wins
- Arizona: 0.3% outcome swing; Utah State wins
Impacts if Utah State wins
- Boise State: 0.5% change; Utah State wins
- New Mexico: -0.5% change; San Diego State wins
- UCLA: -0.3% change; San Diego State wins
- Utah: 0.2% change; Utah State wins
- Arizona: 0.1% change; Utah State wins
Impacts if San Diego State wins
- Utah: -0.4% change; Utah State wins
- Boise State: -0.3% change; Utah State wins
- UCLA: 0.3% change; San Diego State wins
- Arizona: -0.2% change; Utah State wins
- Oregon: 0.2% change; San Diego State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Utah State wins | San Diego State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.9% | 66.1% | 0.8% | Utah State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 27.4% | 28.0% | 0.6% | San Diego State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.0% | 65.6% | 0.6% | San Diego State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.4% | 93.8% | 0.6% | Utah State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.4% | 17.1% | 0.3% | Utah State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.3% | 28.5% | 0.2% | San Diego State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.3% | 73.5% | 0.2% | San Diego State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.4% | 42.3% | 0.1% | Utah State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.4% | 45.3% | 0.1% | Utah State wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 0.1% | Utah State wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | San Diego State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 0.1% | San Diego State wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.1% | San Diego State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 35.0% | 34.9% | 0.1% | Utah State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.7% | 45.8% | 0.1% | San Diego State wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Akron | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.6% | 96.6% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| App State | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Arizona State | Big 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |