Fresno State vs Texas State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Fresno State at Texas State. 2026-11-14 21:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #24. Line unavailable.
Fresno State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 9.1% | 21.0% | 0.0% |
Texas State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 50.2% | 66.7% | 28.9% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Texas: 1.7% outcome swing; Texas State wins
- New Mexico: 1.4% outcome swing; Fresno State wins
- Boise State: 1.2% outcome swing; Texas State wins
- North Texas: 0.6% outcome swing; Texas State wins
- Iowa: 0.5% outcome swing; Fresno State wins
Impacts if Fresno State wins
- Texas: -0.6% change; Texas State wins
- Boise State: -0.4% change; Texas State wins
- New Mexico: 0.4% change; Fresno State wins
- North Texas: -0.4% change; Texas State wins
- Tennessee: -0.3% change; Texas State wins
Impacts if Texas State wins
- Texas: 1.1% change; Texas State wins
- New Mexico: -1.0% change; Fresno State wins
- Boise State: 0.8% change; Texas State wins
- Iowa: -0.3% change; Fresno State wins
- North Texas: 0.2% change; Texas State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Fresno State wins | Texas State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 72.8% | 74.5% | 1.7% | Texas State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 28.3% | 26.9% | 1.4% | Fresno State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.0% | 67.2% | 1.2% | Texas State wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | Texas State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.9% | 24.4% | 0.5% | Fresno State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.5% | 28.1% | 0.4% | Fresno State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.5% | 42.2% | 0.3% | Fresno State wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.3% | Fresno State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 0.3% | Texas State wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 0.3% | Fresno State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.4% | 17.2% | 0.2% | Fresno State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.4% | 65.2% | 0.2% | Fresno State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.1% | 82.0% | 0.1% | Fresno State wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | Fresno State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 0.1% | Texas State wins |
| North Dakota State | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | Fresno State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.3% | 21.2% | 0.1% | Fresno State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.6% | 53.7% | 0.1% | Texas State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.1% | 94.2% | 0.1% | Texas State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.8% | 45.7% | 0.1% | Fresno State wins |