Oregon State vs Fresno State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Oregon State at Fresno State. 2026-11-01 03:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #11. Oregon State -7.
Oregon State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 4.3% | 5.4% | 0.8% |
| Automatic bid | 4.3% | 5.4% | 0.8% |
| Conference title game | 87.2% | 96.9% | 73.3% |
Fresno State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 4.5% | 8.0% | 0.1% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Texas Tech: 4.6% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
- Houston: 2.4% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
- North Texas: 1.8% outcome swing; Fresno State wins
- UTSA: 1.7% outcome swing; Fresno State wins
- USC: 1.5% outcome swing; Fresno State wins
Impacts if Oregon State wins
- Texas Tech: 1.5% change; Oregon State wins
- Houston: 0.6% change; Oregon State wins
- New Mexico: -0.4% change; Fresno State wins
- Kentucky: -0.3% change; Fresno State wins
- LSU: -0.3% change; Fresno State wins
Impacts if Fresno State wins
- Texas Tech: -3.1% change; Oregon State wins
- Houston: -1.8% change; Oregon State wins
- UTSA: 1.6% change; Fresno State wins
- North Texas: 1.5% change; Fresno State wins
- USC: 1.4% change; Fresno State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Oregon State wins | Fresno State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 4.3% | 5.4% | 0.8% | 4.6% | Oregon State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 52.4% | 47.8% | 4.6% | Oregon State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 38.3% | 35.9% | 2.4% | Oregon State wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 1.8% | Fresno State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.0% | 21.7% | 1.7% | Fresno State wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 1.5% | Fresno State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% | Fresno State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 44.1% | 45.3% | 1.2% | Fresno State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 63.7% | 62.8% | 0.9% | Oregon State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.5% | 38.4% | 0.9% | Fresno State wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 0.6% | Fresno State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 71.9% | 71.4% | 0.5% | Oregon State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 81.8% | 82.2% | 0.4% | Fresno State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 44.6% | 45.0% | 0.4% | Fresno State wins |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 13.5% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 0.4% | Fresno State wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.8% | 50.1% | 0.3% | Fresno State wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | Fresno State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 62.1% | 62.3% | 0.2% | Fresno State wins |
| Cincinnati | Big 12 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 0.2% | Oregon State wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | Fresno State wins |