East Carolina vs UAB CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for East Carolina at UAB. 2026-10-15 23:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #45. East Carolina -4.5.

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East Carolina playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game17.4%19.7%6.2%

UAB playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.3%0.8%0.1%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Alabama: 1.3% outcome swing; East Carolina wins
  2. Oregon: 0.6% outcome swing; UAB wins
  3. USC: 0.6% outcome swing; UAB wins
  4. UCLA: 0.5% outcome swing; UAB wins
  5. James Madison: 0.4% outcome swing; East Carolina wins

Impacts if East Carolina wins

  1. James Madison: 0.3% change; East Carolina wins
  2. Alabama: 0.2% change; East Carolina wins
  3. Boise State: -0.2% change; Either outcome
  4. BYU: -0.2% change; Either outcome
  5. Kentucky: 0.2% change; East Carolina wins

Impacts if UAB wins

  1. Alabama: -1.1% change; East Carolina wins
  2. USC: 0.7% change; UAB wins
  3. Oregon: 0.5% change; UAB wins
  4. UCLA: 0.4% change; UAB wins
  5. Missouri: -0.3% change; East Carolina wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentEast Carolina winsUAB winsSwingBetter outcome
AlabamaSEC77.1%77.3%76.0%1.3%East Carolina wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%17.8%18.4%0.6%UAB wins
USCBig Ten18.7%18.8%19.4%0.6%UAB wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%25.7%26.2%0.5%UAB wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%10.2%9.8%0.4%East Carolina wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.5%16.1%0.4%East Carolina wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic6.8%6.6%7.0%0.4%UAB wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%18.4%18.7%0.3%UAB wins
Ohio StateBig Ten78.7%78.7%79.0%0.3%UAB wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%42.0%41.8%0.2%East Carolina wins
KentuckySEC13.9%14.1%13.9%0.2%East Carolina wins
New MexicoMountain West3.8%3.8%3.6%0.2%East Carolina wins
North TexasAmerican Athletic1.3%1.3%1.5%0.2%UAB wins
NorthwesternBig Ten9.2%9.2%9.4%0.2%UAB wins
Ole MissSEC19.2%19.2%19.0%0.2%East Carolina wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%14.7%14.5%0.2%East Carolina wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%5.7%5.6%0.1%East Carolina wins
AuburnSEC0.6%0.6%0.5%0.1%East Carolina wins
CincinnatiBig 121.0%1.0%0.9%0.1%East Carolina wins
GeorgiaSEC96.4%96.4%96.3%0.1%East Carolina wins