Tulsa vs Rice CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Tulsa at Rice. 2026-10-17 20:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #40. Tulsa -4.5.

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Tulsa playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.8%0.9%0.0%

Rice playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.1%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.1%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Boise State: 1.5% outcome swing; Rice wins
  2. Texas Tech: 0.7% outcome swing; Tulsa wins
  3. USC: 0.7% outcome swing; Rice wins
  4. Memphis: 0.5% outcome swing; Tulsa wins
  5. BYU: 0.4% outcome swing; Rice wins

Impacts if Tulsa wins

  1. Boise State: -0.8% change; Rice wins
  2. Memphis: 0.4% change; Tulsa wins
  3. James Madison: 0.3% change; Tulsa wins
  4. Texas Tech: 0.3% change; Tulsa wins
  5. BYU: -0.2% change; Rice wins

Impacts if Rice wins

  1. Boise State: 0.7% change; Rice wins
  2. USC: 0.5% change; Rice wins
  3. Texas Tech: -0.4% change; Tulsa wins
  4. Missouri: -0.3% change; Tulsa wins
  5. Arizona: -0.2% change; Tulsa wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentTulsa winsRice winsSwingBetter outcome
Boise StatePac-1269.5%68.7%70.2%1.5%Rice wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%76.5%75.8%0.7%Tulsa wins
USCBig Ten18.7%18.5%19.2%0.7%Rice wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%4.3%3.8%0.5%Tulsa wins
BYUBig 1236.5%36.3%36.7%0.4%Rice wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%10.2%9.8%0.4%Tulsa wins
Oklahoma StateBig 124.3%4.5%4.2%0.3%Tulsa wins
WisconsinBig Ten7.6%7.5%7.8%0.3%Rice wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%5.7%5.5%0.2%Tulsa wins
GeorgiaSEC96.4%96.5%96.3%0.2%Tulsa wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%87.4%87.6%0.2%Rice wins
IowaBig Ten18.4%18.3%18.5%0.2%Rice wins
KentuckySEC13.9%14.1%13.9%0.2%Tulsa wins
LSUSEC18.1%18.1%17.9%0.2%Tulsa wins
MiamiACC95.1%95.0%95.2%0.2%Rice wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.3%16.1%0.2%Tulsa wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%18.5%18.7%0.2%Rice wins
NorthwesternBig Ten9.2%9.2%9.4%0.2%Rice wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%17.9%17.7%0.2%Tulsa wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%14.8%14.6%0.2%Tulsa wins