Kent State vs South Florida CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Kent State at South Florida. 2026-10-17 23:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #56. South Florida -19.5.

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Kent State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%

South Florida playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.4%0.4%0.0%
Automatic bid0.4%0.4%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Boise State: 1.9% outcome swing; Kent State wins
  2. UTSA: 1.3% outcome swing; South Florida wins
  3. Ohio State: 1.1% outcome swing; Kent State wins
  4. Memphis: 0.9% outcome swing; South Florida wins
  5. Nebraska: 0.8% outcome swing; Kent State wins

Impacts if Kent State wins

  1. Boise State: 1.8% change; Kent State wins
  2. UTSA: -1.3% change; South Florida wins
  3. Ohio State: 1.0% change; Kent State wins
  4. Memphis: -0.8% change; South Florida wins
  5. Nebraska: 0.8% change; Kent State wins

Impacts if South Florida wins

  1. Boise State: -0.1% change; Kent State wins
  2. BYU: 0.1% change; South Florida wins
  3. Memphis: 0.1% change; South Florida wins
  4. Ohio State: -0.1% change; Kent State wins
  5. Air Force: 0.0% change; Either outcome

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentKent State winsSouth Florida winsSwingBetter outcome
Boise StatePac-1269.5%71.3%69.4%1.9%Kent State wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic6.8%5.5%6.8%1.3%South Florida wins
Ohio StateBig Ten78.7%79.7%78.6%1.1%Kent State wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%3.1%4.0%0.9%South Florida wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%19.3%18.5%0.8%Kent State wins
BYUBig 1236.5%36.0%36.6%0.6%South Florida wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%10.5%9.9%0.6%Kent State wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%75.7%76.2%0.5%South Florida wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%76.7%77.1%0.4%South Florida wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%41.6%42.0%0.4%South Florida wins
North TexasAmerican Athletic1.3%0.9%1.3%0.4%South Florida wins
NorthwesternBig Ten9.2%9.6%9.2%0.4%Kent State wins
South FloridaAmerican Athletic0.4%0.0%0.4%0.4%South Florida wins
USCBig Ten18.7%19.1%18.7%0.4%Kent State wins
BaylorBig 126.4%6.1%6.4%0.3%South Florida wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%87.8%87.5%0.3%Kent State wins
IowaBig Ten18.4%18.7%18.4%0.3%Kent State wins
KentuckySEC13.9%14.2%13.9%0.3%Kent State wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.1%16.4%0.3%South Florida wins
New MexicoMountain West3.8%4.1%3.8%0.3%Kent State wins