Army vs Memphis CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Army at Memphis. 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #15. Line unavailable.
Army playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 2.5% | 5.1% | 0.1% |
| Automatic bid | 2.5% | 5.1% | 0.1% |
| Conference title game | 39.7% | 71.3% | 21.9% |
Memphis playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 24.8% | 35.2% | 2.9% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Boise State: 6.6% outcome swing; Memphis wins
- UTSA: 1.9% outcome swing; Army wins
- New Mexico: 1.0% outcome swing; Army wins
- Alabama: 0.9% outcome swing; Army wins
- Arizona: 0.4% outcome swing; Memphis wins
Impacts if Army wins
- Boise State: -4.2% change; Memphis wins
- UTSA: 1.6% change; Army wins
- New Mexico: 1.1% change; Army wins
- Alabama: 0.5% change; Army wins
- Arizona: -0.2% change; Memphis wins
Impacts if Memphis wins
- Boise State: 2.4% change; Memphis wins
- Alabama: -0.4% change; Army wins
- UTSA: -0.3% change; Army wins
- Arizona: 0.2% change; Memphis wins
- UCLA: 0.2% change; Memphis wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Army wins | Memphis wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 59.6% | 66.2% | 6.6% | Memphis wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 5.1% | 0.1% | 5.0% | Army wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 21.7% | 19.8% | 1.9% | Army wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.0% | Army wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 50.4% | 49.5% | 0.9% | Army wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | Memphis wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 23.8% | 24.2% | 0.4% | Memphis wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.6% | 37.8% | 0.2% | Memphis wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 0.2% | Memphis wins |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 0.2% | Memphis wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | Army wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 0.2% | Memphis wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | Army wins |
| Auburn | SEC | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | Army wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 62.0% | 62.1% | 0.1% | Memphis wins |
| Duke | ACC | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | Army wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 81.9% | 82.0% | 0.1% | Memphis wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 37.8% | 37.7% | 0.1% | Army wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.1% | Army wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | Army wins |