UAB vs South Florida CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for UAB at South Florida. 2026-10-31 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #54. Line unavailable.
UAB playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
South Florida playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Army: 0.5% outcome swing; South Florida wins
- North Texas: 0.5% outcome swing; UAB wins
- UTSA: 0.4% outcome swing; UAB wins
- Texas Tech: 0.3% outcome swing; South Florida wins
- UCLA: 0.3% outcome swing; UAB wins
Impacts if UAB wins
- North Texas: 0.5% change; UAB wins
- Army: -0.4% change; South Florida wins
- Texas Tech: -0.3% change; South Florida wins
- UCLA: 0.3% change; UAB wins
- LSU: 0.2% change; UAB wins
Impacts if South Florida wins
- Boise State: 0.2% change; South Florida wins
- UTSA: -0.2% change; UAB wins
- Army: 0.1% change; South Florida wins
- Memphis: 0.1% change; Either outcome
- UNLV: -0.1% change; UAB wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | UAB wins | South Florida wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 0.5% | South Florida wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 0.5% | UAB wins |
| South Florida | American Athletic | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | South Florida wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.3% | 19.9% | 0.4% | UAB wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 50.6% | 50.9% | 0.3% | South Florida wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 44.6% | 44.3% | 0.3% | UAB wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 64.0% | 0.2% | South Florida wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 45.1% | 44.9% | 0.2% | UAB wins |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 13.5% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 0.2% | UAB wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 95.3% | 95.5% | 95.3% | 0.2% | UAB wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 14.2% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 0.2% | South Florida wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 50.0% | 49.9% | 0.1% | UAB wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 23.9% | 24.0% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 62.0% | 62.1% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| Florida | SEC | 18.7% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 92.0% | 91.9% | 0.1% | UAB wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | UAB wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.9% | 37.8% | 0.1% | UAB wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| Louisville | ACC | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |