UTSA vs Florida Atlantic CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for UTSA at Florida Atlantic. 2026-11-06 00:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #11. UTSA -6.5.
UTSA playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 20.1% | 25.1% | 2.6% |
| At-large | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Automatic bid | 19.1% | 24.1% | 2.6% |
| Conference title game | 67.7% | 76.3% | 46.5% |
Florida Atlantic playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Boise State: 10.5% outcome swing; Florida Atlantic wins
- New Mexico: 6.7% outcome swing; Florida Atlantic wins
- Liberty: 4.0% outcome swing; Florida Atlantic wins
- Texas: 1.2% outcome swing; UTSA wins
- Wake Forest: 0.7% outcome swing; Florida Atlantic wins
Impacts if UTSA wins
- Boise State: -3.0% change; Florida Atlantic wins
- New Mexico: -1.1% change; Florida Atlantic wins
- Liberty: -1.0% change; Florida Atlantic wins
- Texas: 0.3% change; UTSA wins
- North Texas: 0.2% change; UTSA wins
Impacts if Florida Atlantic wins
- Boise State: 7.5% change; Florida Atlantic wins
- New Mexico: 5.6% change; Florida Atlantic wins
- Liberty: 3.0% change; Florida Atlantic wins
- Texas: -0.9% change; UTSA wins
- Wake Forest: 0.7% change; Florida Atlantic wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | UTSA wins | Florida Atlantic wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 25.1% | 2.6% | 22.5% | UTSA wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 53.8% | 64.3% | 10.5% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 17.0% | 23.7% | 6.7% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 2.8% | 6.8% | 4.0% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.5% | 61.3% | 1.2% | UTSA wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.3% | 46.0% | 0.7% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | UTSA wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.8% | 45.2% | 0.4% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 0.3% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 0.3% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.5% | 76.7% | 0.2% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 84.9% | 85.1% | 0.2% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 37.1% | 37.3% | 0.2% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.7% | 87.9% | 0.2% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.4% | 0.2% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.4% | 45.6% | 0.2% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 0.1% | UTSA wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.9% | 88.8% | 0.1% | UTSA wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 26.3% | 26.4% | 0.1% | Florida Atlantic wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | Florida Atlantic wins |