South Florida vs East Carolina CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for South Florida at East Carolina. 2026-11-07 00:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #21. South Florida -1.5.
South Florida playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 2.8% | 5.1% | 0.1% |
East Carolina playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- UTSA: 1.8% outcome swing; South Florida wins
- Alabama: 1.3% outcome swing; East Carolina wins
- Boise State: 1.3% outcome swing; East Carolina wins
- LSU: 0.8% outcome swing; East Carolina wins
- BYU: 0.7% outcome swing; South Florida wins
Impacts if South Florida wins
- Alabama: -0.7% change; East Carolina wins
- UTSA: 0.7% change; South Florida wins
- Boise State: -0.6% change; East Carolina wins
- Ohio State: 0.4% change; South Florida wins
- BYU: 0.3% change; South Florida wins
Impacts if East Carolina wins
- UTSA: -1.1% change; South Florida wins
- Boise State: 0.7% change; East Carolina wins
- Alabama: 0.6% change; East Carolina wins
- LSU: 0.5% change; East Carolina wins
- BYU: -0.4% change; South Florida wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | South Florida wins | East Carolina wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.8% | 19.0% | 1.8% | South Florida wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 75.8% | 77.1% | 1.3% | East Carolina wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 56.2% | 57.5% | 1.3% | East Carolina wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 48.8% | 49.6% | 0.8% | East Carolina wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.7% | 51.0% | 0.7% | South Florida wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.7% | 45.1% | 0.6% | South Florida wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 0.4% | East Carolina wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 18.1% | 18.5% | 0.4% | East Carolina wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 70.2% | 69.8% | 0.4% | South Florida wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.0% | 26.4% | 0.4% | East Carolina wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.3% | South Florida wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 0.2% | South Florida wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.7% | 98.8% | 98.6% | 0.2% | South Florida wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.7% | 87.9% | 0.2% | East Carolina wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.3% | 62.1% | 0.2% | South Florida wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 0.1% | East Carolina wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 84.9% | 85.0% | 0.1% | East Carolina wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 89.0% | 88.9% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.2% | 50.1% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |