Air Force vs Army CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Air Force at Army. 2026-11-08 00:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #20. Army -5.5.
Air Force playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Army playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 4.2% outcome swing; Air Force wins
- UTSA: 1.7% outcome swing; Army wins
- Boise State: 1.5% outcome swing; Army wins
- North Texas: 0.6% outcome swing; Army wins
- Alabama: 0.4% outcome swing; Army wins
Impacts if Air Force wins
- New Mexico: 2.7% change; Air Force wins
- Boise State: -1.0% change; Army wins
- UTSA: -1.0% change; Army wins
- Alabama: -0.4% change; Army wins
- Wake Forest: 0.4% change; Air Force wins
Impacts if Army wins
- New Mexico: -1.5% change; Air Force wins
- UTSA: 0.7% change; Army wins
- Boise State: 0.5% change; Army wins
- North Texas: 0.3% change; Army wins
- Arizona: 0.1% change; Either outcome
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Air Force wins | Army wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 20.8% | 16.6% | 4.2% | Air Force wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 19.1% | 20.8% | 1.7% | Army wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 55.8% | 57.3% | 1.5% | Army wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 0.6% | Army wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.1% | 76.5% | 0.4% | Army wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.7% | 45.3% | 0.4% | Air Force wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.2% | 50.5% | 0.3% | Army wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 0.3% | Air Force wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 0.2% | Army wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 70.0% | 69.8% | 0.2% | Air Force wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.4% | 51.3% | 0.1% | Air Force wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.8% | 88.9% | 0.1% | Army wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 0.1% | Air Force wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | Army wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 0.1% | Army wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.0% | 49.1% | 0.1% | Army wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | Army wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 0.1% | Air Force wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 0.1% | Air Force wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.1% | 26.2% | 0.1% | Army wins |