Memphis vs South Florida CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Memphis at South Florida. 2026-11-13 01:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #25. Memphis -6.5.
Memphis playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 63.7% | 79.3% | 37.0% |
South Florida playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Boise State: 2.6% outcome swing; Memphis wins
- New Mexico: 1.8% outcome swing; South Florida wins
- Liberty: 1.1% outcome swing; South Florida wins
- North Texas: 0.5% outcome swing; Memphis wins
- UTSA: 0.3% outcome swing; South Florida wins
Impacts if Memphis wins
- Boise State: 1.0% change; Memphis wins
- New Mexico: -0.7% change; South Florida wins
- Liberty: -0.5% change; South Florida wins
- North Texas: 0.2% change; Memphis wins
- Arizona: 0.1% change; Memphis wins
Impacts if South Florida wins
- Boise State: -1.6% change; Memphis wins
- New Mexico: 1.1% change; South Florida wins
- Liberty: 0.6% change; South Florida wins
- North Texas: -0.3% change; Memphis wins
- Texas: 0.2% change; South Florida wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Memphis wins | South Florida wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 67.4% | 64.8% | 2.6% | Memphis wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 27.2% | 29.0% | 1.8% | South Florida wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% | South Florida wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | Memphis wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | South Florida wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | Memphis wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.4% | 73.6% | 0.2% | South Florida wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.4% | 17.3% | 0.1% | Memphis wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.4% | 45.3% | 0.1% | Memphis wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 81.9% | 82.0% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.6% | 0.1% | Memphis wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.4% | 28.3% | 0.1% | Memphis wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 0.1% | South Florida wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Akron | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.6% | 96.6% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| App State | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |