North Texas vs UTSA CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for North Texas at UTSA. 2026-11-15 02:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #19. Line unavailable.
North Texas playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 2.4% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 2.4% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 91.9% | 99.7% | 81.1% |
UTSA playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 26.3% | 52.0% | 10.6% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Indiana: 3.1% outcome swing; North Texas wins
- Texas: 2.1% outcome swing; UTSA wins
- Boise State: 1.0% outcome swing; UTSA wins
- Liberty: 0.7% outcome swing; UTSA wins
- LSU: 0.5% outcome swing; UTSA wins
Impacts if North Texas wins
- Indiana: 0.9% change; North Texas wins
- Texas: -0.7% change; UTSA wins
- Liberty: -0.2% change; UTSA wins
- Boise State: -0.1% change; UTSA wins
- BYU: 0.1% change; Either outcome
Impacts if UTSA wins
- Indiana: -2.2% change; North Texas wins
- Texas: 1.4% change; UTSA wins
- Boise State: 0.9% change; UTSA wins
- Liberty: 0.5% change; UTSA wins
- LSU: 0.4% change; UTSA wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | North Texas wins | UTSA wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 3.3% | North Texas wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.9% | 79.8% | 3.1% | North Texas wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 72.7% | 74.8% | 2.1% | UTSA wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | UTSA wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.3% | 67.3% | 1.0% | UTSA wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 0.7% | UTSA wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.6% | 19.1% | 0.5% | UTSA wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.4% | 21.1% | 0.3% | North Texas wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 0.3% | UTSA wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | UTSA wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.8% | 54.0% | 0.2% | UTSA wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.3% | 17.4% | 0.1% | UTSA wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.3% | 45.4% | 0.1% | UTSA wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.8% | 24.7% | 0.1% | North Texas wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 0.1% | UTSA wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | North Texas wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | UTSA wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 27.8% | 27.7% | 0.1% | North Texas wins |
| North Dakota State | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | UTSA wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.3% | 28.4% | 0.1% | UTSA wins |