San José State vs UTEP CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for San José State at UTEP. 2026-10-18 01:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #52. San José State -8.5.

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San José State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game1.0%1.0%0.3%

UTEP playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. USC: 1.6% outcome swing; San José State wins
  2. Oregon State: 0.4% outcome swing; UTEP wins
  3. Tennessee: 0.4% outcome swing; UTEP wins
  4. BYU: 0.3% outcome swing; UTEP wins
  5. Ole Miss: 0.3% outcome swing; UTEP wins

Impacts if San José State wins

  1. USC: 0.5% change; San José State wins
  2. Kentucky: 0.2% change; Either outcome
  3. Boise State: 0.1% change; San José State wins
  4. BYU: -0.1% change; UTEP wins
  5. Cincinnati: -0.1% change; Either outcome

Impacts if UTEP wins

  1. USC: -1.1% change; San José State wins
  2. Oregon State: 0.4% change; UTEP wins
  3. Indiana: -0.3% change; San José State wins
  4. Ole Miss: 0.3% change; UTEP wins
  5. Tennessee: 0.3% change; UTEP wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentSan José State winsUTEP winsSwingBetter outcome
USCBig Ten18.7%19.2%17.6%1.6%San José State wins
Oregon StatePac-123.8%3.8%4.2%0.4%UTEP wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%14.6%15.0%0.4%UTEP wins
BYUBig 1236.5%36.4%36.7%0.3%UTEP wins
Ole MissSEC19.2%19.2%19.5%0.3%UTEP wins
Boise StatePac-1269.5%69.6%69.4%0.2%San José State wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%42.0%41.8%0.2%San José State wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%87.4%87.2%0.2%San José State wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%10.0%9.8%0.2%San José State wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%4.0%3.8%0.2%San José State wins
Mississippi StateSEC5.8%5.7%5.9%0.2%UTEP wins
TexasSEC83.7%83.7%83.9%0.2%UTEP wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%76.1%76.3%0.2%UTEP wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%25.7%25.9%0.2%UTEP wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%77.1%77.2%0.1%UTEP wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%5.7%5.8%0.1%UTEP wins
AuburnSEC0.6%0.6%0.5%0.1%San José State wins
BaylorBig 126.4%6.4%6.3%0.1%San José State wins
Florida StateACC0.3%0.3%0.4%0.1%UTEP wins
IowaBig Ten18.4%18.4%18.5%0.1%UTEP wins