New Mexico vs San José State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for New Mexico at San José State. 2026-10-31 20:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #45. Line unavailable.
New Mexico playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 3.2% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Automatic bid | 3.2% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Conference title game | 92.1% | 93.7% | 79.6% |
San José State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.7% | 5.3% | 1.3% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Boise State: 1.5% outcome swing; San José State wins
- USC: 1.1% outcome swing; San José State wins
- UTSA: 0.9% outcome swing; San José State wins
- Kentucky: 0.7% outcome swing; New Mexico wins
- Alabama: 0.6% outcome swing; New Mexico wins
Impacts if New Mexico wins
- Houston: 0.2% change; New Mexico wins
- UCLA: -0.2% change; San José State wins
- Boise State: -0.1% change; San José State wins
- Iowa: -0.1% change; New Mexico wins
- LSU: 0.1% change; San José State wins
Impacts if San José State wins
- Boise State: 1.4% change; San José State wins
- USC: 1.0% change; San José State wins
- UTSA: 0.9% change; San José State wins
- Kentucky: -0.7% change; New Mexico wins
- Alabama: -0.6% change; New Mexico wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | New Mexico wins | San José State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 3.4% | 0.2% | 3.2% | New Mexico wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 63.7% | 65.2% | 1.5% | San José State wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 1.1% | San José State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.1% | 21.0% | 0.9% | San José State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.8% | 37.1% | 0.7% | New Mexico wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.9% | 49.3% | 0.6% | New Mexico wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.4% | 0.4% | San José State wins |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 0.4% | San José State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 0.4% | New Mexico wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 44.1% | 44.4% | 0.3% | San José State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 82.0% | 81.8% | 0.2% | New Mexico wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 45.0% | 45.2% | 0.2% | San José State wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 95.3% | 95.3% | 95.1% | 0.2% | New Mexico wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 37.6% | 37.4% | 0.2% | New Mexico wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 50.8% | 51.0% | 0.2% | San José State wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 0.1% | San José State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 62.1% | 62.2% | 0.1% | San José State wins |
| Fresno State | Pac-12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | San José State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 37.9% | 37.8% | 0.1% | New Mexico wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 91.9% | 92.0% | 0.1% | San José State wins |