New Mexico vs Nevada CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for New Mexico at Nevada. 2026-11-07 02:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #13. New Mexico -12.5.
New Mexico playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 18.1% | 20.1% | 0.3% |
| Automatic bid | 17.5% | 19.5% | 0.3% |
| Conference title game | 94.1% | 95.6% | 88.7% |
Nevada playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.5% | 6.6% | 0.4% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Boise State: 7.3% outcome swing; Nevada wins
- Liberty: 6.1% outcome swing; Nevada wins
- UTSA: 2.4% outcome swing; Nevada wins
- North Texas: 2.3% outcome swing; Nevada wins
- UCLA: 0.9% outcome swing; Nevada wins
Impacts if New Mexico wins
- Boise State: -1.1% change; Nevada wins
- Liberty: -0.4% change; Nevada wins
- UCLA: -0.4% change; Nevada wins
- North Texas: -0.3% change; Nevada wins
- Notre Dame: -0.2% change; Nevada wins
Impacts if Nevada wins
- Boise State: 6.2% change; Nevada wins
- Liberty: 5.7% change; Nevada wins
- UTSA: 2.2% change; Nevada wins
- North Texas: 2.0% change; Nevada wins
- UCLA: 0.5% change; Nevada wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | New Mexico wins | Nevada wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 20.1% | 0.3% | 19.8% | New Mexico wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 55.7% | 63.0% | 7.3% | Nevada wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 3.4% | 9.5% | 6.1% | Nevada wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 19.9% | 22.3% | 2.4% | Nevada wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 2.3% | Nevada wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.1% | 46.0% | 0.9% | Nevada wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.5% | 87.9% | 0.4% | Nevada wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.4% | 50.0% | 0.4% | New Mexico wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.5% | 76.2% | 0.3% | New Mexico wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | Nevada wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 69.8% | 70.1% | 0.3% | Nevada wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 0.2% | Nevada wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 0.2% | New Mexico wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 0.2% | Nevada wins |
| Jacksonville State | Conference USA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | Nevada wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.2% | 49.0% | 0.2% | New Mexico wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 0.2% | Nevada wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.5% | 51.4% | 0.1% | New Mexico wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 85.0% | 84.9% | 0.1% | New Mexico wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.8% | 88.9% | 0.1% | Nevada wins |