Northern Illinois vs San José State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Northern Illinois at San José State. 2026-11-07 21:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #52. Line unavailable.
Northern Illinois playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
San José State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Arizona: 0.9% outcome swing; Northern Illinois wins
- UCLA: 0.7% outcome swing; San José State wins
- Iowa: 0.6% outcome swing; Northern Illinois wins
- New Mexico: 0.5% outcome swing; San José State wins
- Indiana: 0.4% outcome swing; San José State wins
Impacts if Northern Illinois wins
- Arizona: 0.8% change; Northern Illinois wins
- UCLA: -0.6% change; San José State wins
- Indiana: -0.4% change; San José State wins
- Iowa: 0.4% change; Northern Illinois wins
- New Mexico: -0.4% change; San José State wins
Impacts if San José State wins
- Iowa: -0.2% change; Northern Illinois wins
- Arizona: -0.1% change; Northern Illinois wins
- Boise State: 0.1% change; Either outcome
- BYU: 0.1% change; Northern Illinois wins
- Houston: -0.1% change; Northern Illinois wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Northern Illinois wins | San José State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 0.9% | Northern Illinois wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 44.9% | 45.6% | 0.7% | San José State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 0.6% | Northern Illinois wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 17.7% | 18.2% | 0.5% | San José State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.5% | 88.9% | 0.4% | San José State wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 0.4% | San José State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.7% | 51.5% | 0.2% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 0.2% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.2% | 50.4% | 0.2% | San José State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 45.0% | 44.8% | 0.2% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.2% | 45.4% | 0.2% | San José State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 37.1% | 37.0% | 0.1% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 26.3% | 26.2% | 0.1% | Northern Illinois wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.1% | 49.2% | 0.1% | San José State wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 0.1% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.8% | 87.7% | 0.1% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.1% | 62.2% | 0.1% | San José State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 83.4% | 83.4% | 83.3% | 0.1% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Akron | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |