Nevada vs Northern Illinois CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Nevada at Northern Illinois. 2026-11-14 20:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #30. Line unavailable.
Nevada playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Northern Illinois playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Iowa: 2.1% outcome swing; Northern Illinois wins
- New Mexico: 1.0% outcome swing; Nevada wins
- Arizona: 0.9% outcome swing; Northern Illinois wins
- Boise State: 0.9% outcome swing; Northern Illinois wins
- UCLA: 0.9% outcome swing; Nevada wins
Impacts if Nevada wins
- Iowa: -0.4% change; Northern Illinois wins
- Arizona: -0.2% change; Northern Illinois wins
- Texas: 0.2% change; Nevada wins
- UCLA: 0.2% change; Nevada wins
- Boise State: -0.1% change; Northern Illinois wins
Impacts if Northern Illinois wins
- Iowa: 1.7% change; Northern Illinois wins
- New Mexico: -1.0% change; Nevada wins
- Boise State: 0.8% change; Northern Illinois wins
- Arizona: 0.7% change; Northern Illinois wins
- UCLA: -0.7% change; Nevada wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Nevada wins | Northern Illinois wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.3% | 26.4% | 2.1% | Northern Illinois wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 27.9% | 26.9% | 1.0% | Nevada wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.1% | 18.0% | 0.9% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.3% | 67.2% | 0.9% | Northern Illinois wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.5% | 64.6% | 0.9% | Nevada wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.9% | 53.4% | 0.5% | Nevada wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.6% | 73.1% | 0.5% | Nevada wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.1% | 81.8% | 0.3% | Nevada wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.3% | Nevada wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 0.3% | Nevada wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.9% | 45.6% | 0.3% | Nevada wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.2% | 42.4% | 0.2% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.3% | 45.5% | 0.2% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.4% | 28.2% | 0.2% | Nevada wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.7% | 18.6% | 0.1% | Nevada wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.1% | Northern Illinois wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.3% | 21.2% | 0.1% | Nevada wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 0.1% | Nevada wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 34.9% | 35.0% | 0.1% | Northern Illinois wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 0.1% | Nevada wins |