North Dakota State vs Hawai'i CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for North Dakota State at Hawai'i. 2026-11-15 04:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #35. Line unavailable.
North Dakota State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 68.6% | 85.5% | 15.4% |
Hawai'i playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 2.2% outcome swing; North Dakota State wins
- Boise State: 1.6% outcome swing; Hawai'i wins
- North Texas: 0.4% outcome swing; Hawai'i wins
- Wake Forest: 0.2% outcome swing; Hawai'i wins
- Arizona: 0.1% outcome swing; Hawai'i wins
Impacts if North Dakota State wins
- Boise State: -0.5% change; Hawai'i wins
- New Mexico: 0.5% change; North Dakota State wins
- North Texas: -0.1% change; Hawai'i wins
- UCLA: -0.1% change; Hawai'i wins
- Utah: -0.1% change; Hawai'i wins
Impacts if Hawai'i wins
- New Mexico: -1.7% change; North Dakota State wins
- Boise State: 1.1% change; Hawai'i wins
- North Texas: 0.3% change; Hawai'i wins
- Arizona: 0.1% change; Hawai'i wins
- BYU: 0.1% change; Hawai'i wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | North Dakota State wins | Hawai'i wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 28.4% | 26.2% | 2.2% | North Dakota State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 65.9% | 67.5% | 1.6% | Hawai'i wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.4% | Hawai'i wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.7% | 45.9% | 0.2% | Hawai'i wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.3% | 17.4% | 0.1% | Hawai'i wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.3% | 42.4% | 0.1% | Hawai'i wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.3% | 45.4% | 0.1% | Hawai'i wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.6% | 0.1% | North Dakota State wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | Hawai'i wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 0.1% | North Dakota State wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | Hawai'i wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.4% | 73.3% | 0.1% | North Dakota State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.2% | 65.3% | 0.1% | Hawai'i wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.1% | 94.2% | 0.1% | Hawai'i wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | Hawai'i wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Akron | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.6% | 96.6% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| App State | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Arizona State | Big 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |