San José State vs Air Force CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for San José State at Air Force. 2026-11-15 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #47. Line unavailable.
San José State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
Air Force playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 2.4% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 1.4% outcome swing; Air Force wins
- Boise State: 1.3% outcome swing; San José State wins
- Oregon: 0.3% outcome swing; San José State wins
- Tennessee: 0.3% outcome swing; Air Force wins
- USC: 0.3% outcome swing; San José State wins
Impacts if San José State wins
- New Mexico: -1.3% change; Air Force wins
- Boise State: 1.1% change; San José State wins
- Oregon: 0.3% change; San José State wins
- Tennessee: -0.3% change; Air Force wins
- USC: 0.3% change; San José State wins
Impacts if Air Force wins
- Boise State: -0.2% change; San José State wins
- Alabama: 0.1% change; Air Force wins
- New Mexico: 0.1% change; Air Force wins
- Ohio State: -0.1% change; San José State wins
- Texas: 0.1% change; Air Force wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | San José State wins | Air Force wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 26.6% | 28.0% | 1.4% | Air Force wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 67.5% | 66.2% | 1.3% | San José State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.6% | 28.3% | 0.3% | San José State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.6% | 53.9% | 0.3% | Air Force wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 0.3% | San José State wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.5% | 96.7% | 0.2% | Air Force wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 0.2% | Air Force wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.5% | 65.3% | 0.2% | San José State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.2% | 17.3% | 0.1% | Air Force wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.1% | 82.0% | 0.1% | San José State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.8% | 24.7% | 0.1% | San José State wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | San José State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 0.1% | Air Force wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.4% | 98.3% | 98.4% | 0.1% | Air Force wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.3% | 21.2% | 0.1% | San José State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.4% | 73.5% | 0.1% | Air Force wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.1% | 94.2% | 0.1% | Air Force wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Akron | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| App State | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |