UNLV vs New Mexico CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for UNLV at New Mexico. 2026-11-15 00:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #13. Line unavailable.
UNLV playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 4.6% | 25.0% | 0.3% |
New Mexico playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 27.9% | 32.0% | 0.9% |
| Automatic bid | 27.1% | 31.2% | 0.9% |
| Conference title game | 96.8% | 98.8% | 90.2% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Boise State: 15.5% outcome swing; UNLV wins
- Liberty: 5.8% outcome swing; UNLV wins
- North Texas: 5.6% outcome swing; UNLV wins
- UTSA: 1.7% outcome swing; UNLV wins
- Louisiana Tech: 0.7% outcome swing; UNLV wins
Impacts if UNLV wins
- Boise State: 13.6% change; UNLV wins
- Liberty: 5.0% change; UNLV wins
- North Texas: 4.6% change; UNLV wins
- UTSA: 1.5% change; UNLV wins
- Louisiana Tech: 0.6% change; UNLV wins
Impacts if New Mexico wins
- Boise State: -1.9% change; UNLV wins
- North Texas: -1.0% change; UNLV wins
- Liberty: -0.8% change; UNLV wins
- UTSA: -0.2% change; UNLV wins
- BYU: 0.1% change; Either outcome
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | UNLV wins | New Mexico wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 0.9% | 32.0% | 31.1% | New Mexico wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 80.0% | 64.5% | 15.5% | UNLV wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 5.8% | UNLV wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 5.6% | UNLV wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 0.6% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 1.7% | UNLV wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% | UNLV wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.7% | 45.3% | 0.4% | UNLV wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.1% | 73.5% | 0.4% | New Mexico wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | UNLV wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.2% | 82.0% | 0.2% | UNLV wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.9% | 24.7% | 0.2% | UNLV wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | UNLV wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 0.2% | New Mexico wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.7% | 53.9% | 0.2% | New Mexico wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.4% | 65.2% | 0.2% | UNLV wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 46.0% | 45.8% | 0.2% | UNLV wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.4% | 17.3% | 0.1% | UNLV wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 0.1% | New Mexico wins |
| North Dakota State | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | UNLV wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 99.4% | 99.5% | 99.4% | 0.1% | UNLV wins |