Massachusetts vs Buffalo CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Massachusetts at Buffalo. 2026-10-17 17:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #59. Buffalo -3.

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Massachusetts playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.8%1.4%0.1%

Buffalo playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game12.3%16.5%3.7%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Nebraska: 0.4% outcome swing; Massachusetts wins
  2. Iowa: 0.3% outcome swing; Buffalo wins
  3. Indiana: 0.2% outcome swing; Massachusetts wins
  4. James Madison: 0.2% outcome swing; Massachusetts wins
  5. Kentucky: 0.2% outcome swing; Buffalo wins

Impacts if Massachusetts wins

  1. Nebraska: 0.2% change; Massachusetts wins
  2. Wisconsin: 0.2% change; Massachusetts wins
  3. Baylor: -0.1% change; Either outcome
  4. Georgia: -0.1% change; Buffalo wins
  5. Houston: -0.1% change; Buffalo wins

Impacts if Buffalo wins

  1. Iowa: 0.3% change; Buffalo wins
  2. Indiana: -0.2% change; Massachusetts wins
  3. Kentucky: 0.2% change; Buffalo wins
  4. Nebraska: -0.2% change; Massachusetts wins
  5. Baylor: -0.1% change; Either outcome

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentMassachusetts winsBuffalo winsSwingBetter outcome
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%18.7%18.3%0.4%Massachusetts wins
IowaBig Ten18.4%18.4%18.7%0.3%Buffalo wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%87.5%87.3%0.2%Massachusetts wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%10.0%9.8%0.2%Massachusetts wins
KentuckySEC13.9%13.9%14.1%0.2%Buffalo wins
WisconsinBig Ten7.6%7.8%7.6%0.2%Massachusetts wins
GeorgiaSEC96.4%96.3%96.4%0.1%Buffalo wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%41.9%42.0%0.1%Buffalo wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%4.0%3.9%0.1%Massachusetts wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.3%16.4%0.1%Buffalo wins
North CarolinaACC3.1%3.0%3.1%0.1%Buffalo wins
North TexasAmerican Athletic1.3%1.2%1.3%0.1%Buffalo wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%17.9%17.8%0.1%Massachusetts wins
Oregon StatePac-123.8%3.8%3.9%0.1%Buffalo wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%14.7%14.8%0.1%Buffalo wins
TexasSEC83.7%83.8%83.7%0.1%Massachusetts wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%25.8%25.7%0.1%Massachusetts wins
UtahBig 1259.3%59.3%59.4%0.1%Buffalo wins
Western MichiganMid-American0.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%Buffalo wins
Air ForceMountain West0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%Either outcome