Western Michigan vs Central Michigan CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Western Michigan at Central Michigan. 2026-10-17 17:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #30. Western Michigan -7.

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Western Michigan playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.1%0.1%0.0%
Automatic bid0.1%0.1%0.0%
Conference title game71.0%78.6%47.4%

Central Michigan playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game4.7%14.6%0.8%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Boise State: 3.8% outcome swing; Western Michigan wins
  2. New Mexico: 2.4% outcome swing; Central Michigan wins
  3. James Madison: 0.7% outcome swing; Central Michigan wins
  4. Memphis: 0.7% outcome swing; Central Michigan wins
  5. Oregon: 0.7% outcome swing; Western Michigan wins

Impacts if Western Michigan wins

  1. New Mexico: -0.5% change; Central Michigan wins
  2. Boise State: 0.4% change; Western Michigan wins
  3. Oregon: 0.2% change; Western Michigan wins
  4. UCLA: 0.2% change; Western Michigan wins
  5. Wake Forest: -0.2% change; Central Michigan wins

Impacts if Central Michigan wins

  1. Boise State: -3.4% change; Western Michigan wins
  2. New Mexico: 1.9% change; Central Michigan wins
  3. Memphis: 0.7% change; Central Michigan wins
  4. James Madison: 0.6% change; Central Michigan wins
  5. Oregon: -0.5% change; Western Michigan wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentWestern Michigan winsCentral Michigan winsSwingBetter outcome
Boise StatePac-1269.5%69.9%66.1%3.8%Western Michigan wins
New MexicoMountain West3.8%3.3%5.7%2.4%Central Michigan wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%9.8%10.5%0.7%Central Michigan wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%3.9%4.6%0.7%Central Michigan wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%18.1%17.4%0.7%Western Michigan wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%87.5%87.1%0.4%Western Michigan wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%26.0%25.6%0.4%Western Michigan wins
IowaBig Ten18.4%18.5%18.2%0.3%Western Michigan wins
MiamiACC95.1%95.1%95.4%0.3%Central Michigan wins
Wake ForestACC14.7%14.5%14.8%0.3%Central Michigan wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%42.0%41.8%0.2%Western Michigan wins
KentuckySEC13.9%13.9%14.1%0.2%Central Michigan wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%18.5%18.7%0.2%Central Michigan wins
Ohio StateBig Ten78.7%78.6%78.8%0.2%Central Michigan wins
Oklahoma StateBig 124.3%4.3%4.5%0.2%Central Michigan wins
Oregon StatePac-123.8%3.8%4.0%0.2%Central Michigan wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%76.2%76.0%0.2%Western Michigan wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%77.1%77.2%0.1%Central Michigan wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%5.7%5.6%0.1%Western Michigan wins
ArmyAmerican Athletic0.6%0.6%0.7%0.1%Central Michigan wins