Ball State vs Massachusetts CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Ball State at Massachusetts. 2026-11-05 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #46. Massachusetts -4.5.
Ball State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Massachusetts playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Ohio State: 1.2% outcome swing; Ball State wins
- Liberty: 0.7% outcome swing; Ball State wins
- Boise State: 0.4% outcome swing; Massachusetts wins
- Ole Miss: 0.4% outcome swing; Massachusetts wins
- Wake Forest: 0.3% outcome swing; Massachusetts wins
Impacts if Ball State wins
- Ohio State: 0.9% change; Ball State wins
- Liberty: 0.7% change; Ball State wins
- Ole Miss: -0.4% change; Massachusetts wins
- Boise State: -0.3% change; Massachusetts wins
- Wake Forest: -0.3% change; Massachusetts wins
Impacts if Massachusetts wins
- Ohio State: -0.3% change; Ball State wins
- Boise State: 0.1% change; Massachusetts wins
- LSU: 0.1% change; Massachusetts wins
- Tennessee: 0.1% change; Massachusetts wins
- Air Force: 0.0% change; Either outcome
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Ball State wins | Massachusetts wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 70.7% | 69.5% | 1.2% | Ball State wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 0.7% | Ball State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 56.5% | 56.9% | 0.4% | Massachusetts wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.0% | 50.4% | 0.4% | Massachusetts wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.0% | 45.3% | 0.3% | Massachusetts wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 0.2% | Ball State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.0% | 49.2% | 0.2% | Massachusetts wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 0.2% | Massachusetts wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.1% | 26.3% | 0.2% | Massachusetts wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 0.2% | Ball State wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.4% | 76.5% | 0.1% | Massachusetts wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 0.1% | Massachusetts wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.3% | 51.4% | 0.1% | Massachusetts wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 0.1% | Massachusetts wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 26.4% | 26.3% | 0.1% | Ball State wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | Massachusetts wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 18.0% | 18.1% | 0.1% | Massachusetts wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.3% | 62.2% | 0.1% | Ball State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.7% | 44.8% | 0.1% | Massachusetts wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.0% | 20.1% | 0.1% | Massachusetts wins |