Toledo vs Sacramento State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Toledo at Sacramento State. 2026-11-05 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #63. Toledo -27.5.
Toledo playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 53.5% | 54.3% | 22.1% |
Sacramento State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 0.6% outcome swing; Sacramento State wins
- Boise State: 0.4% outcome swing; Toledo wins
- Notre Dame: 0.3% outcome swing; Toledo wins
- UTSA: 0.3% outcome swing; Toledo wins
- Indiana: 0.2% outcome swing; Toledo wins
Impacts if Toledo wins
Impacts if Sacramento State wins
- New Mexico: 0.6% change; Sacramento State wins
- Boise State: -0.4% change; Toledo wins
- Notre Dame: -0.3% change; Toledo wins
- UTSA: -0.3% change; Toledo wins
- Indiana: -0.2% change; Toledo wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Toledo wins | Sacramento State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 18.1% | 18.7% | 0.6% | Sacramento State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 56.8% | 56.4% | 0.4% | Toledo wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.7% | 87.4% | 0.3% | Toledo wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.1% | 19.8% | 0.3% | Toledo wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.9% | 88.7% | 0.2% | Toledo wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.1% | 49.3% | 0.2% | Sacramento State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.3% | 0.2% | Toledo wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.5% | 76.6% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 69.8% | 69.7% | 0.1% | Toledo wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.3% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.8% | 44.9% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.3% | 45.4% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Akron | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| App State | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Arizona State | Big 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Arkansas | SEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |