Buffalo vs Ball State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Buffalo at Ball State. 2026-11-12 00:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #37. Buffalo -3.
Buffalo playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 29.5% | 38.9% | 6.7% |
Ball State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Ohio State: 1.1% outcome swing; Ball State wins
- Liberty: 0.4% outcome swing; Ball State wins
- Tennessee: 0.4% outcome swing; Buffalo wins
- Arizona: 0.3% outcome swing; Buffalo wins
- Boise State: 0.3% outcome swing; Buffalo wins
Impacts if Buffalo wins
- Ohio State: -0.5% change; Ball State wins
- Liberty: -0.3% change; Ball State wins
- Arizona: 0.2% change; Buffalo wins
- Boise State: 0.2% change; Buffalo wins
- BYU: 0.1% change; Buffalo wins
Impacts if Ball State wins
- Ohio State: 0.6% change; Ball State wins
- Tennessee: -0.3% change; Buffalo wins
- Indiana: 0.2% change; Ball State wins
- Iowa: 0.2% change; Ball State wins
- Ole Miss: -0.2% change; Buffalo wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Buffalo wins | Ball State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 20.8% | 21.9% | 1.1% | Ball State wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 0.4% | Ball State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 54.0% | 53.6% | 0.4% | Buffalo wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.5% | 17.2% | 0.3% | Buffalo wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.6% | 66.3% | 0.3% | Buffalo wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 81.9% | 82.2% | 0.3% | Ball State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.6% | 24.9% | 0.3% | Ball State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 0.3% | Buffalo wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.3% | 73.6% | 0.3% | Ball State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.4% | 42.2% | 0.2% | Buffalo wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.3% | 28.5% | 0.2% | Ball State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.3% | 65.1% | 0.2% | Buffalo wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.8% | 45.6% | 0.2% | Buffalo wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.4% | 45.3% | 0.1% | Buffalo wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.7% | 18.6% | 0.1% | Buffalo wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.1% | Buffalo wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 34.9% | 34.8% | 0.1% | Buffalo wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 94.2% | 0.1% | Buffalo wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Akron | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |