Sacramento State vs Central Michigan CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Sacramento State at Central Michigan. 2026-11-12 00:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #64. Central Michigan -15.5.
Sacramento State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Central Michigan playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 0.8% outcome swing; Central Michigan wins
- Boise State: 0.7% outcome swing; Sacramento State wins
- Miami: 0.3% outcome swing; Central Michigan wins
- Wake Forest: 0.3% outcome swing; Central Michigan wins
- Houston: 0.2% outcome swing; Sacramento State wins
Impacts if Sacramento State wins
- New Mexico: -0.8% change; Central Michigan wins
- Boise State: 0.6% change; Sacramento State wins
- Miami: -0.3% change; Central Michigan wins
- Wake Forest: -0.3% change; Central Michigan wins
- Houston: 0.2% change; Sacramento State wins
Impacts if Central Michigan wins
- Boise State: -0.1% change; Sacramento State wins
- Air Force: 0.0% change; Either outcome
- Akron: 0.0% change; Either outcome
- Alabama: 0.0% change; Either outcome
- App State: 0.0% change; Either outcome
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Sacramento State wins | Central Michigan wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 27.1% | 27.9% | 0.8% | Central Michigan wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 67.0% | 66.3% | 0.7% | Sacramento State wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.4% | 98.1% | 98.4% | 0.3% | Central Michigan wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.5% | 45.8% | 0.3% | Central Michigan wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.5% | 45.3% | 0.2% | Sacramento State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.5% | 28.3% | 0.2% | Sacramento State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.4% | 17.3% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.1% | 82.0% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.8% | 24.7% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.4% | 21.3% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.8% | 53.9% | 0.1% | Central Michigan wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.5% | 73.4% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.4% | 65.3% | 0.1% | Sacramento State wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Akron | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.6% | 96.6% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| App State | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Arizona State | Big 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Arkansas | SEC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |