Massachusetts vs Toledo CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Massachusetts at Toledo. 2026-11-12 00:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #65. Toledo -14.

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Massachusetts playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Toledo playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game48.1%52.8%18.3%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Boise State: 0.5% outcome swing; Toledo wins
  2. New Mexico: 0.4% outcome swing; Massachusetts wins
  3. Oregon: 0.2% outcome swing; Toledo wins
  4. UCLA: 0.2% outcome swing; Toledo wins
  5. Alabama: 0.1% outcome swing; Massachusetts wins

Impacts if Massachusetts wins

  1. Boise State: -0.5% change; Toledo wins
  2. New Mexico: 0.4% change; Massachusetts wins
  3. UCLA: -0.2% change; Toledo wins
  4. Alabama: 0.1% change; Massachusetts wins
  5. Houston: 0.1% change; Massachusetts wins

Impacts if Toledo wins

  1. Oregon: 0.1% change; Toledo wins
  2. Air Force: 0.0% change; Either outcome
  3. Akron: 0.0% change; Either outcome
  4. Alabama: 0.0% change; Massachusetts wins
  5. App State: 0.0% change; Either outcome

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentMassachusetts winsToledo winsSwingBetter outcome
Boise StatePac-1266.4%65.9%66.4%0.5%Toledo wins
New MexicoMountain West27.9%28.3%27.9%0.4%Massachusetts wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%28.2%28.4%0.2%Toledo wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%65.1%65.3%0.2%Toledo wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.7%96.6%0.1%Massachusetts wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%45.4%45.3%0.1%Massachusetts wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%82.1%82.0%0.1%Massachusetts wins
North Dakota StateMountain West0.0%0.1%0.0%0.1%Massachusetts wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%53.8%53.9%0.1%Toledo wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%45.9%45.8%0.1%Massachusetts wins
Air ForceMountain West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
AkronMid-American0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
App StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.3%17.3%0.0%Either outcome
Arizona StateBig 120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
ArkansasSEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
Arkansas StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
ArmyAmerican Athletic0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
AuburnSEC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
Ball StateMid-American0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome