App State vs Coastal Carolina CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for App State at Coastal Carolina. 2026-10-17 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #55. App State -1.5.

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App State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game1.6%1.9%0.4%

Coastal Carolina playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.5%0.6%0.1%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Texas Tech: 0.4% outcome swing; Coastal Carolina wins
  2. Alabama: 0.3% outcome swing; App State wins
  3. Kentucky: 0.3% outcome swing; App State wins
  4. Oregon: 0.3% outcome swing; Coastal Carolina wins
  5. Utah: 0.3% outcome swing; Coastal Carolina wins

Impacts if App State wins

  1. Kentucky: 0.3% change; App State wins
  2. Alabama: 0.2% change; App State wins
  3. Boise State: 0.2% change; App State wins
  4. BYU: -0.2% change; Coastal Carolina wins
  5. Oregon: -0.2% change; Coastal Carolina wins

Impacts if Coastal Carolina wins

  1. Texas Tech: 0.2% change; Coastal Carolina wins
  2. Utah: 0.2% change; Coastal Carolina wins
  3. Alabama: -0.1% change; App State wins
  4. Auburn: -0.1% change; App State wins
  5. Houston: 0.1% change; Coastal Carolina wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentApp State winsCoastal Carolina winsSwingBetter outcome
Texas TechBig 1276.2%76.0%76.4%0.4%Coastal Carolina wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%77.3%77.0%0.3%App State wins
KentuckySEC13.9%14.2%13.9%0.3%App State wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%17.7%18.0%0.3%Coastal Carolina wins
UtahBig 1259.3%59.2%59.5%0.3%Coastal Carolina wins
Boise StatePac-1269.5%69.7%69.5%0.2%App State wins
BYUBig 1236.5%36.3%36.5%0.2%Coastal Carolina wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%41.9%42.1%0.2%Coastal Carolina wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%9.8%10.0%0.2%Coastal Carolina wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.5%16.3%0.2%App State wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%18.6%18.4%0.2%App State wins
NorthwesternBig Ten9.2%9.3%9.1%0.2%App State wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%14.8%14.6%0.2%App State wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%5.6%5.7%0.1%Coastal Carolina wins
AuburnSEC0.6%0.6%0.5%0.1%App State wins
BaylorBig 126.4%6.3%6.4%0.1%Coastal Carolina wins
Fresno StatePac-120.4%0.3%0.4%0.1%Coastal Carolina wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%3.9%4.0%0.1%Coastal Carolina wins
North TexasAmerican Athletic1.3%1.3%1.2%0.1%App State wins
Oklahoma StateBig 124.3%4.3%4.4%0.1%Coastal Carolina wins