Arkansas State vs Southern Miss CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 7 pregame analysis for Arkansas State at Southern Miss . 2026-10-17 23:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #36. Arkansas State -7.
Rooting Guide
National Impact
CFP Odds
Conference Standings
Projected CFP Bracket
Back to National Impact
Path Current With win With loss CFP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% At-large 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Automatic bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Conference title game 0.4% 1.1% 0.0%
Path Current With win With loss CFP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% At-large 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Automatic bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Conference title game 0.9% 1.5% 0.1%
Biggest non-participant CFP swings James Madison : 1.6% outcome swing; Southern Miss winsMemphis : 1.1% outcome swing; Arkansas State winsBYU : 0.7% outcome swing; Arkansas State winsMissouri : 0.4% outcome swing; Southern Miss winsAlabama : 0.3% outcome swing; Southern Miss winsImpacts if Arkansas State wins James Madison : -1.0% change; Southern Miss winsMemphis : 0.9% change; Arkansas State winsNew Mexico : 0.3% change; Arkansas State winsArizona : 0.2% change; Arkansas State winsBoise State : -0.2% change; Southern Miss winsImpacts if Southern Miss wins James Madison : 0.6% change; Southern Miss winsBYU : -0.5% change; Arkansas State winsHouston : -0.3% change; Arkansas State winsMissouri : 0.3% change; Southern Miss winsAlabama : 0.2% change; Southern Miss winsBiggest modeled CFP impacts This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
Team Conference Current Arkansas State wins Southern Miss wins Swing Better outcome James Madison Sun Belt 9.9% 8.9% 10.5% 1.6% Southern Miss wins Memphis American Athletic 3.9% 4.8% 3.7% 1.1% Arkansas State wins BYU Big 12 36.5% 36.7% 36.0% 0.7% Arkansas State wins Missouri SEC 16.4% 16.3% 16.7% 0.4% Southern Miss wins Alabama SEC 77.1% 77.0% 77.3% 0.3% Southern Miss wins Arizona Big 12 5.7% 5.9% 5.6% 0.3% Arkansas State wins Houston Big 12 42.0% 42.0% 41.7% 0.3% Arkansas State wins New Mexico Mountain West 3.8% 4.1% 3.8% 0.3% Arkansas State wins Tennessee SEC 14.7% 14.5% 14.8% 0.3% Southern Miss wins Auburn SEC 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% Southern Miss wins Fresno State Pac-12 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% Arkansas State wins Kentucky SEC 13.9% 13.9% 14.1% 0.2% Southern Miss wins LSU SEC 18.1% 18.0% 18.2% 0.2% Southern Miss wins Nebraska Big Ten 18.5% 18.3% 18.5% 0.2% Southern Miss wins North Texas American Athletic 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 0.2% Arkansas State wins Northwestern Big Ten 9.2% 9.1% 9.3% 0.2% Southern Miss wins Oklahoma State Big 12 4.3% 4.5% 4.3% 0.2% Arkansas State wins Oregon Big Ten 17.9% 17.9% 18.1% 0.2% Southern Miss wins Texas Tech Big 12 76.2% 76.2% 76.0% 0.2% Arkansas State wins UTSA American Athletic 6.8% 6.9% 6.7% 0.2% Arkansas State wins