UL Monroe vs Arkansas State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for UL Monroe at Arkansas State. 2026-11-07 20:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #62. Line unavailable.
UL Monroe playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Arkansas State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Arizona: 0.5% outcome swing; Arkansas State wins
- Boise State: 0.4% outcome swing; Arkansas State wins
- LSU: 0.4% outcome swing; UL Monroe wins
- BYU: 0.3% outcome swing; Arkansas State wins
- Ole Miss: 0.3% outcome swing; UL Monroe wins
Impacts if UL Monroe wins
- Arizona: -0.4% change; Arkansas State wins
- Boise State: -0.4% change; Arkansas State wins
- LSU: 0.4% change; UL Monroe wins
- BYU: -0.2% change; Arkansas State wins
- Georgia: 0.2% change; UL Monroe wins
Impacts if Arkansas State wins
- Ole Miss: -0.2% change; UL Monroe wins
- Arizona: 0.1% change; Arkansas State wins
- BYU: 0.1% change; Arkansas State wins
- Florida: -0.1% change; UL Monroe wins
- Texas Tech: 0.1% change; Arkansas State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | UL Monroe wins | Arkansas State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 0.5% | Arkansas State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 56.4% | 56.8% | 0.4% | Arkansas State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.5% | 49.1% | 0.4% | UL Monroe wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.2% | 51.5% | 0.3% | Arkansas State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.5% | 50.2% | 0.3% | UL Monroe wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 0.2% | UL Monroe wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 85.1% | 84.9% | 0.2% | UL Monroe wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 69.6% | 69.8% | 0.2% | Arkansas State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.7% | 44.9% | 0.2% | Arkansas State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.3% | 45.5% | 0.2% | Arkansas State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.3% | 20.1% | 0.2% | UL Monroe wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.6% | 76.5% | 0.1% | UL Monroe wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 37.0% | 37.1% | 0.1% | Arkansas State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.8% | 88.9% | 0.1% | Arkansas State wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 0.1% | UL Monroe wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 0.1% | UL Monroe wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.8% | 87.7% | 0.1% | UL Monroe wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.3% | 62.2% | 0.1% | UL Monroe wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 0.1% | UL Monroe wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.4% | 45.3% | 0.1% | UL Monroe wins |