Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Georgia Southern at Old Dominion. 2026-10-15 23:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #39. Georgia Southern -4.

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Georgia Southern playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.6%0.8%0.1%

Old Dominion playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.1%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Houston: 1.7% outcome swing; Georgia Southern wins
  2. Texas Tech: 0.8% outcome swing; Georgia Southern wins
  3. UCLA: 0.5% outcome swing; Old Dominion wins
  4. North Carolina: 0.4% outcome swing; Old Dominion wins
  5. Oregon: 0.4% outcome swing; Old Dominion wins

Impacts if Georgia Southern wins

  1. Texas Tech: 0.4% change; Georgia Southern wins
  2. Houston: 0.3% change; Georgia Southern wins
  3. North Carolina: -0.2% change; Old Dominion wins
  4. Alabama: -0.1% change; Old Dominion wins
  5. Boise State: -0.1% change; Old Dominion wins

Impacts if Old Dominion wins

  1. Houston: -1.4% change; Georgia Southern wins
  2. Oregon: 0.4% change; Old Dominion wins
  3. Texas Tech: -0.4% change; Georgia Southern wins
  4. UCLA: 0.4% change; Old Dominion wins
  5. Baylor: -0.3% change; Georgia Southern wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentGeorgia Southern winsOld Dominion winsSwingBetter outcome
HoustonBig 1242.0%42.3%40.6%1.7%Georgia Southern wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%76.6%75.8%0.8%Georgia Southern wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%25.7%26.2%0.5%Old Dominion wins
North CarolinaACC3.1%2.9%3.3%0.4%Old Dominion wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%17.9%18.3%0.4%Old Dominion wins
BaylorBig 126.4%6.4%6.1%0.3%Georgia Southern wins
NorthwesternBig Ten9.2%9.2%9.5%0.3%Old Dominion wins
Ohio StateBig Ten78.7%78.6%78.9%0.3%Old Dominion wins
UtahBig 1259.3%59.3%59.0%0.3%Georgia Southern wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.3%16.5%0.2%Old Dominion wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%14.6%14.8%0.2%Old Dominion wins
WisconsinBig Ten7.6%7.6%7.8%0.2%Old Dominion wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%77.0%77.1%0.1%Old Dominion wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%5.7%5.8%0.1%Old Dominion wins
Boise StatePac-1269.5%69.4%69.5%0.1%Old Dominion wins
ClemsonACC0.9%1.0%0.9%0.1%Georgia Southern wins
Fresno StatePac-120.4%0.4%0.3%0.1%Georgia Southern wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%87.4%87.5%0.1%Old Dominion wins
KentuckySEC13.9%13.9%14.0%0.1%Old Dominion wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%4.0%4.1%0.1%Old Dominion wins