Troy vs James Madison CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 9 pregame analysis for Troy at James Madison. 2026-10-29 23:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #50. James Madison -17.5.

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Troy playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.4%1.7%0.2%

James Madison playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP1.3%1.3%0.0%
Automatic bid1.3%1.3%0.0%
Conference title game82.8%84.7%55.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. LSU: 1.2% outcome swing; Troy wins
  2. UCLA: 0.5% outcome swing; James Madison wins
  3. Alabama: 0.4% outcome swing; James Madison wins
  4. Arizona: 0.4% outcome swing; James Madison wins
  5. BYU: 0.4% outcome swing; James Madison wins

Impacts if Troy wins

  1. LSU: 1.1% change; Troy wins
  2. UCLA: -0.5% change; James Madison wins
  3. Utah: 0.5% change; Troy wins
  4. Alabama: -0.4% change; James Madison wins
  5. Arizona: -0.4% change; James Madison wins

Impacts if James Madison wins

  1. BYU: 0.1% change; James Madison wins
  2. Kentucky: -0.1% change; Troy wins
  3. LSU: -0.1% change; Troy wins
  4. Missouri: 0.1% change; Troy wins
  5. Ole Miss: -0.1% change; Troy wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentTroy winsJames Madison winsSwingBetter outcome
James MadisonSun Belt1.3%0.0%1.3%1.3%James Madison wins
LSUSEC44.9%46.0%44.8%1.2%Troy wins
UCLABig Ten44.3%43.8%44.3%0.5%James Madison wins
AlabamaSEC49.9%49.5%49.9%0.4%James Madison wins
ArizonaBig 1224.0%23.6%24.0%0.4%James Madison wins
Boise StatePac-1263.8%64.2%63.8%0.4%Troy wins
BYUBig 1262.1%61.8%62.2%0.4%James Madison wins
KentuckySEC37.8%38.1%37.7%0.4%Troy wins
UtahBig 1271.7%72.2%71.8%0.4%Troy wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic20.1%20.5%20.1%0.4%Troy wins
IowaBig Ten2.7%2.4%2.7%0.3%James Madison wins
MissouriSEC4.7%5.1%4.8%0.3%Troy wins
New MexicoMountain West3.2%2.9%3.2%0.3%James Madison wins
SMUACC8.1%7.8%8.1%0.3%James Madison wins
ArmyAmerican Athletic2.5%2.7%2.5%0.2%Troy wins
North TexasAmerican Athletic4.7%4.9%4.7%0.2%Troy wins
Notre DameFBS Independents95.3%95.1%95.3%0.2%James Madison wins
Ohio StateBig Ten92.3%92.1%92.3%0.2%James Madison wins
Ole MissSEC37.5%37.6%37.4%0.2%Troy wins
TennesseeSEC11.7%11.9%11.7%0.2%Troy wins