Louisiana vs UL Monroe CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Louisiana at UL Monroe. 2026-11-13 02:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #66. Louisiana -11.5.

Back to National Impact

Louisiana playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.6%0.6%0.0%

UL Monroe playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Indiana: 0.3% outcome swing; Louisiana wins
  2. Ole Miss: 0.3% outcome swing; UL Monroe wins
  3. Texas: 0.3% outcome swing; UL Monroe wins
  4. USC: 0.3% outcome swing; Louisiana wins
  5. BYU: 0.2% outcome swing; Louisiana wins

Impacts if Louisiana wins

  1. BYU: 0.1% change; Louisiana wins
  2. Indiana: 0.1% change; Louisiana wins
  3. LSU: -0.1% change; UL Monroe wins
  4. Ole Miss: -0.1% change; UL Monroe wins
  5. Oregon: 0.1% change; Louisiana wins

Impacts if UL Monroe wins

  1. Texas: 0.3% change; UL Monroe wins
  2. USC: -0.3% change; Louisiana wins
  3. Indiana: -0.2% change; Louisiana wins
  4. Ohio State: -0.2% change; Louisiana wins
  5. Ole Miss: 0.2% change; UL Monroe wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentLouisiana winsUL Monroe winsSwingBetter outcome
IndianaBig Ten82.0%82.1%81.8%0.3%Louisiana wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%11.4%11.7%0.3%UL Monroe wins
TexasSEC73.4%73.4%73.7%0.3%UL Monroe wins
USCBig Ten9.8%9.8%9.5%0.3%Louisiana wins
BYUBig 1242.3%42.4%42.2%0.2%Louisiana wins
LSUSEC18.7%18.6%18.8%0.2%UL Monroe wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%21.3%21.1%0.2%Louisiana wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%53.8%54.0%0.2%UL Monroe wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%65.3%65.1%0.2%Louisiana wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.6%96.7%0.1%UL Monroe wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%45.3%45.4%0.1%UL Monroe wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%24.7%24.6%0.1%Louisiana wins
KentuckySEC13.4%13.4%13.5%0.1%UL Monroe wins
North TexasAmerican Athletic2.4%2.4%2.5%0.1%UL Monroe wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%28.4%28.3%0.1%Louisiana wins
Air ForceMountain West0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
AkronMid-American0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
App StateSun Belt0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.3%17.3%0.0%Either outcome
Arizona StateBig 120.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Either outcome