Liberty vs New Mexico State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Liberty at New Mexico State. 2026-11-08 01:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #45. Line unavailable.
Liberty playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 99.8% | 100.0% | 97.3% |
New Mexico State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 2.5% outcome swing; New Mexico State wins
- Memphis: 0.8% outcome swing; New Mexico State wins
- Wake Forest: 0.4% outcome swing; New Mexico State wins
- Tennessee: 0.3% outcome swing; Liberty wins
- Alabama: 0.2% outcome swing; New Mexico State wins
Impacts if Liberty wins
- LSU: -0.1% change; New Mexico State wins
- Ohio State: 0.1% change; Liberty wins
- Air Force: 0.0% change; Either outcome
- Akron: 0.0% change; Either outcome
- Alabama: 0.0% change; New Mexico State wins
Impacts if New Mexico State wins
- New Mexico: 2.5% change; New Mexico State wins
- Memphis: 0.8% change; New Mexico State wins
- Wake Forest: 0.4% change; New Mexico State wins
- Tennessee: -0.3% change; Liberty wins
- Alabama: 0.2% change; New Mexico State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Liberty wins | New Mexico State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 3.8% | Liberty wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 18.1% | 20.6% | 2.5% | New Mexico State wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | New Mexico State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.3% | 45.7% | 0.4% | New Mexico State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.2% | 25.9% | 0.3% | Liberty wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.5% | 76.7% | 0.2% | New Mexico State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.9% | 88.7% | 0.2% | Liberty wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | New Mexico State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 69.9% | 69.7% | 0.2% | Liberty wins |
| South Florida | American Athletic | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | New Mexico State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.3% | 0.2% | Liberty wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.1% | 19.9% | 0.2% | Liberty wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 56.8% | 56.9% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 84.9% | 85.0% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 37.1% | 37.0% | 0.1% | Liberty wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.0% | 49.1% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.7% | 98.7% | 98.8% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| North Dakota State | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |