New Mexico State vs Missouri State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for New Mexico State at Missouri State. 2026-11-14 20:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #36. Line unavailable.
New Mexico State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Missouri State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 1.4% outcome swing; New Mexico State wins
- Boise State: 0.9% outcome swing; Missouri State wins
- Iowa: 0.3% outcome swing; New Mexico State wins
- Tennessee: 0.3% outcome swing; Missouri State wins
- Ohio State: 0.2% outcome swing; New Mexico State wins
Impacts if New Mexico State wins
- New Mexico: 0.7% change; New Mexico State wins
- Boise State: -0.6% change; Missouri State wins
- Tennessee: -0.3% change; Missouri State wins
- Iowa: 0.2% change; New Mexico State wins
- Wake Forest: -0.2% change; Missouri State wins
Impacts if Missouri State wins
- New Mexico: -0.7% change; New Mexico State wins
- Boise State: 0.3% change; Missouri State wins
- Houston: 0.1% change; Either outcome
- Iowa: -0.1% change; New Mexico State wins
- Kentucky: 0.1% change; Missouri State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | New Mexico State wins | Missouri State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 28.6% | 27.2% | 1.4% | New Mexico State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 65.8% | 66.7% | 0.9% | Missouri State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.9% | 24.6% | 0.3% | New Mexico State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.6% | 53.9% | 0.3% | Missouri State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.4% | 21.2% | 0.2% | New Mexico State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.6% | 45.8% | 0.2% | Missouri State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.4% | 42.3% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.1% | 82.0% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 0.1% | Missouri State wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 0.1% | Missouri State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 0.1% | Missouri State wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.1% | Missouri State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 0.1% | Missouri State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.4% | 28.3% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 0.1% | Missouri State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.4% | 73.5% | 0.1% | Missouri State wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Akron | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.6% | 96.6% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| App State | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |