Kennesaw State vs Missouri State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Kennesaw State at Missouri State. 2026-10-14 23:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #57. Kennesaw State -3.5.

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Kennesaw State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game8.3%10.5%2.6%

Missouri State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game1.4%2.1%0.4%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Tennessee: 1.1% outcome swing; Kennesaw State wins
  2. Boise State: 0.4% outcome swing; Missouri State wins
  3. Indiana: 0.2% outcome swing; Missouri State wins
  4. Iowa: 0.2% outcome swing; Missouri State wins
  5. SMU: 0.2% outcome swing; Missouri State wins

Impacts if Kennesaw State wins

  1. Boise State: -0.3% change; Missouri State wins
  2. James Madison: 0.2% change; Kennesaw State wins
  3. Memphis: 0.2% change; Kennesaw State wins
  4. SMU: -0.2% change; Missouri State wins
  5. Tennessee: 0.2% change; Kennesaw State wins

Impacts if Missouri State wins

  1. Tennessee: -0.9% change; Kennesaw State wins
  2. Indiana: 0.2% change; Missouri State wins
  3. Boise State: 0.1% change; Missouri State wins
  4. BYU: 0.1% change; Either outcome
  5. Iowa: 0.1% change; Missouri State wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentKennesaw State winsMissouri State winsSwingBetter outcome
TennesseeSEC14.7%14.9%13.8%1.1%Kennesaw State wins
Boise StatePac-1269.5%69.2%69.6%0.4%Missouri State wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%87.5%87.7%0.2%Missouri State wins
IowaBig Ten18.4%18.3%18.5%0.2%Missouri State wins
SMUACC2.9%2.7%2.9%0.2%Missouri State wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%5.8%5.7%0.1%Kennesaw State wins
Florida StateACC0.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%Kennesaw State wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%41.9%42.0%0.1%Missouri State wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%10.1%10.0%0.1%Kennesaw State wins
KentuckySEC13.9%13.9%13.8%0.1%Kennesaw State wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%4.1%4.0%0.1%Kennesaw State wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.4%16.5%0.1%Missouri State wins
New MexicoMountain West3.8%3.7%3.8%0.1%Missouri State wins
Oklahoma StateBig 124.3%4.3%4.4%0.1%Missouri State wins
Texas A&MSEC0.2%0.1%0.2%0.1%Missouri State wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%25.7%25.8%0.1%Missouri State wins
UtahBig 1259.3%59.3%59.4%0.1%Missouri State wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic6.8%6.8%6.7%0.1%Kennesaw State wins
Wake ForestACC14.7%14.7%14.8%0.1%Missouri State wins
WisconsinBig Ten7.6%7.7%7.6%0.1%Kennesaw State wins