Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Jacksonville State at New Mexico State. 2026-10-29 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #46. Jacksonville State -3.
Jacksonville State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 64.9% | 80.6% | 46.8% |
New Mexico State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 13.9% | 24.4% | 2.2% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 1.0% outcome swing; New Mexico State wins
- Houston: 0.3% outcome swing; Jacksonville State wins
- Arizona: 0.2% outcome swing; New Mexico State wins
- Army: 0.2% outcome swing; Jacksonville State wins
- Boise State: 0.2% outcome swing; Jacksonville State wins
Impacts if Jacksonville State wins
- New Mexico: -0.5% change; New Mexico State wins
- Alabama: -0.2% change; New Mexico State wins
- USC: 0.2% change; Jacksonville State wins
- UTSA: 0.2% change; Jacksonville State wins
- Boise State: 0.1% change; Jacksonville State wins
Impacts if New Mexico State wins
- New Mexico: 0.5% change; New Mexico State wins
- Houston: -0.3% change; Jacksonville State wins
- Arizona: 0.2% change; New Mexico State wins
- Army: -0.2% change; Jacksonville State wins
- Tennessee: -0.2% change; Jacksonville State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Jacksonville State wins | New Mexico State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 1.0% | New Mexico State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 37.7% | 37.4% | 0.3% | Jacksonville State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.2% | 0.2% | New Mexico State wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.2% | Jacksonville State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 63.9% | 63.7% | 0.2% | Jacksonville State wins |
| SMU | ACC | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 0.2% | New Mexico State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 0.2% | Jacksonville State wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 0.2% | Jacksonville State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.3% | 20.1% | 0.2% | Jacksonville State wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.7% | 49.8% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| Auburn | SEC | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 62.1% | 62.0% | 0.1% | Jacksonville State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 82.0% | 82.1% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 92.0% | 91.9% | 0.1% | Jacksonville State wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | Jacksonville State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.8% | 37.7% | 0.1% | Jacksonville State wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | Jacksonville State wins |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 0.1% | Jacksonville State wins |
| Ohio | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | Jacksonville State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 92.3% | 92.3% | 92.4% | 0.1% | New Mexico State wins |