Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee. 2026-10-28 23:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #33. Middle Tennessee -2.5.
Kennesaw State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Middle Tennessee playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 5.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Tennessee: 1.8% outcome swing; Kennesaw State wins
- Houston: 0.7% outcome swing; Middle Tennessee wins
- LSU: 0.7% outcome swing; Kennesaw State wins
- New Mexico: 0.4% outcome swing; Middle Tennessee wins
- UCLA: 0.4% outcome swing; Middle Tennessee wins
Impacts if Kennesaw State wins
- Tennessee: 0.9% change; Kennesaw State wins
- Houston: -0.5% change; Middle Tennessee wins
- LSU: 0.5% change; Kennesaw State wins
- New Mexico: -0.3% change; Middle Tennessee wins
- UCLA: -0.3% change; Middle Tennessee wins
Impacts if Middle Tennessee wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Kennesaw State wins | Middle Tennessee wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 1.8% | Kennesaw State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 37.2% | 37.9% | 0.7% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 45.4% | 44.7% | 0.7% | Kennesaw State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 0.4% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 44.0% | 44.4% | 0.4% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 71.5% | 71.9% | 0.4% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.4% | 20.0% | 0.4% | Kennesaw State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 23.9% | 24.2% | 0.3% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 61.9% | 62.2% | 0.3% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 82.2% | 82.0% | 0.2% | Kennesaw State wins |
| Louisville | ACC | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% | Kennesaw State wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 0.2% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 37.7% | 37.5% | 0.2% | Kennesaw State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 50.8% | 51.0% | 0.2% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 0.2% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.7% | 49.8% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Auburn | SEC | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | Kennesaw State wins |
| Florida | SEC | 18.7% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |