Middle Tennessee vs Liberty CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Middle Tennessee at Liberty. 2026-11-14 20:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #54. Line unavailable.
Middle Tennessee playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.3% | 4.4% | 0.2% |
Liberty playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 3.2% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 99.9% | 100.0% | 96.5% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Boise State: 1.0% outcome swing; Middle Tennessee wins
- New Mexico: 0.9% outcome swing; Middle Tennessee wins
- North Texas: 0.5% outcome swing; Middle Tennessee wins
- Memphis: 0.3% outcome swing; Middle Tennessee wins
- BYU: 0.2% outcome swing; Middle Tennessee wins
Impacts if Middle Tennessee wins
- Boise State: 1.0% change; Middle Tennessee wins
- New Mexico: 0.8% change; Middle Tennessee wins
- North Texas: 0.5% change; Middle Tennessee wins
- Memphis: 0.3% change; Middle Tennessee wins
- BYU: 0.2% change; Middle Tennessee wins
Impacts if Liberty wins
- New Mexico: -0.1% change; Middle Tennessee wins
- Air Force: 0.0% change; Either outcome
- Akron: 0.0% change; Either outcome
- Alabama: 0.0% change; Either outcome
- App State: 0.0% change; Either outcome
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Middle Tennessee wins | Liberty wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | Liberty wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 67.4% | 66.4% | 1.0% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 28.7% | 27.8% | 0.9% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.5% | 42.3% | 0.2% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.1% | 21.3% | 0.2% | Liberty wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.4% | 17.3% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.4% | 45.3% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 99.4% | 99.5% | 99.4% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.4% | 28.3% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.8% | 53.9% | 0.1% | Liberty wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.3% | 73.4% | 0.1% | Liberty wins |
| Toledo | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.4% | 65.3% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 94.2% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | Middle Tennessee wins |