Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Western Kentucky at Sam Houston. 2026-10-15 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #24. Western Kentucky -1.5.

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Western Kentucky playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game5.6%8.6%2.1%

Sam Houston playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game5.1%6.4%2.3%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Texas Tech: 2.6% outcome swing; Sam Houston wins
  2. Indiana: 2.2% outcome swing; Western Kentucky wins
  3. UCLA: 0.8% outcome swing; Western Kentucky wins
  4. USC: 0.6% outcome swing; Western Kentucky wins
  5. Georgia: 0.5% outcome swing; Western Kentucky wins

Impacts if Western Kentucky wins

  1. Texas Tech: -1.7% change; Sam Houston wins
  2. Indiana: 1.4% change; Western Kentucky wins
  3. USC: 0.5% change; Western Kentucky wins
  4. Houston: -0.4% change; Sam Houston wins
  5. UCLA: 0.4% change; Western Kentucky wins

Impacts if Sam Houston wins

  1. Texas Tech: 0.9% change; Sam Houston wins
  2. Indiana: -0.8% change; Western Kentucky wins
  3. UCLA: -0.4% change; Western Kentucky wins
  4. Georgia: -0.3% change; Western Kentucky wins
  5. Kentucky: 0.3% change; Sam Houston wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentWestern Kentucky winsSam Houston winsSwingBetter outcome
Texas TechBig 1276.2%74.5%77.1%2.6%Sam Houston wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%88.9%86.7%2.2%Western Kentucky wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%26.2%25.4%0.8%Western Kentucky wins
USCBig Ten18.7%19.2%18.6%0.6%Western Kentucky wins
GeorgiaSEC96.4%96.6%96.1%0.5%Western Kentucky wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%41.6%42.1%0.5%Sam Houston wins
BYUBig 1236.5%36.3%36.7%0.4%Sam Houston wins
KentuckySEC13.9%13.8%14.2%0.4%Sam Houston wins
NorthwesternBig Ten9.2%9.4%9.0%0.4%Western Kentucky wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%18.2%17.8%0.4%Western Kentucky wins
UtahBig 1259.3%58.9%59.3%0.4%Sam Houston wins
BaylorBig 126.4%6.1%6.4%0.3%Sam Houston wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%9.7%10.0%0.3%Sam Houston wins
New MexicoMountain West3.8%4.0%3.7%0.3%Western Kentucky wins
Oklahoma StateBig 124.3%4.2%4.5%0.3%Sam Houston wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%5.7%5.9%0.2%Sam Houston wins
AuburnSEC0.6%0.5%0.7%0.2%Sam Houston wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.5%16.3%0.2%Western Kentucky wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%18.6%18.4%0.2%Western Kentucky wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%77.0%77.1%0.1%Sam Houston wins