Sam Houston vs Missouri State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Sam Houston at Missouri State. 2026-10-28 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #27. Missouri State -6.5.
Sam Houston playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Missouri State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Texas Tech: 3.2% outcome swing; Sam Houston wins
- SMU: 0.9% outcome swing; Missouri State wins
- Georgia: 0.7% outcome swing; Missouri State wins
- Utah: 0.6% outcome swing; Sam Houston wins
- Houston: 0.5% outcome swing; Sam Houston wins
Impacts if Sam Houston wins
- Texas Tech: 2.3% change; Sam Houston wins
- SMU: -0.7% change; Missouri State wins
- Alabama: -0.4% change; Missouri State wins
- Utah: 0.4% change; Sam Houston wins
- UTSA: 0.4% change; Sam Houston wins
Impacts if Missouri State wins
- Texas Tech: -0.9% change; Sam Houston wins
- Georgia: 0.4% change; Missouri State wins
- Alabama: -0.2% change; Missouri State wins
- Houston: -0.2% change; Sam Houston wins
- Kentucky: 0.2% change; Missouri State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Sam Houston wins | Missouri State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 53.2% | 50.0% | 3.2% | Sam Houston wins |
| SMU | ACC | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 0.9% | Missouri State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 81.7% | 82.4% | 0.7% | Missouri State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 72.1% | 71.5% | 0.6% | Sam Houston wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 38.0% | 37.5% | 0.5% | Sam Houston wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 44.0% | 44.5% | 0.5% | Missouri State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.6% | 38.0% | 0.4% | Missouri State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 44.6% | 45.0% | 0.4% | Missouri State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 0.4% | Missouri State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 24.2% | 23.9% | 0.3% | Sam Houston wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | Missouri State wins |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 13.5% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 0.3% | Missouri State wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 95.3% | 95.2% | 95.5% | 0.3% | Missouri State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 0.3% | Missouri State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.5% | 20.2% | 0.3% | Sam Houston wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.5% | 49.7% | 0.2% | Missouri State wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.2% | Sam Houston wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 62.2% | 62.0% | 0.2% | Sam Houston wins |
| Florida | SEC | 18.7% | 18.5% | 18.7% | 0.2% | Missouri State wins |
| Louisville | ACC | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.2% | Missouri State wins |